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人民币汇率将在稳定框架内运行

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2018年12月16日 15:05:23
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(原)(标)(题)(:人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(将)(在)(稳)(定)(框)(架)(内)(运)(行)(
解)(盘)(年)(中)(经)(济)(——时)(评)((3)
唐)(福)(勇)(
再)(过)(不)(到)(一)(个)(月)(,离)(2015年)(“8·11”汇)(改)(就)(将)(过)(去)(三)(年)(,经)(过)(近)(三)(年)(时)(间)(的)(运)(行)(,人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(运)(行)(机)(制)(更)(加)(完)(善)(,单)(向)(贬)(值)(或)(升)(值)(的)(市)(场)(担)(忧)(渐)(渐)(淡)(去)(,人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(波)(幅)(虽)(然)(扩)(大)(,但)(有)(升)(有)(贬)(的)(市)(场)(运)(行)(机)(制)(变)(得)(更)(加)(灵)(活)(。三)(年)(来)(,人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(一)(直)(在)(一)(个)(相)(对)(稳)(定)(的)(框)(架)(内)(运)(行)(。
进)(入)(2018年)(年)(中)(,国)(际)(市)(场)(的)(风)(云)(一)(直)(变)(幻)(不)(定)(,由)(美)(国)(挑)(起)(的)(贸)(易)(摩)(擦)(不)(仅)(影)(响)(中)(美)(,也)(正)(逐)(步)(扩)(散)(至)(全)(球)(。外)(界)(也)(由)(此)(担)(忧)(,贸)(易)(摩)(擦)(会)(在)(多)(大)(程)(度)(上)(影)(响)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(,人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(会)(否)(出)(现)(单)(边)(贬)(值)(或)(单)(边)(升)(值)(的)(现)(象)(。
7月)(18日)(,人)(民)(币)(对)(美)(元)(汇)(率)(中)(间)(价)(报)(6.6914,较)(前)(一)(交)(易)(日)(跌)(93个)(基)(点)(。这)(一)(中)(间)(价)(处)(在)(近)(三)(年)(人)(民)(币)(对)(美)(元)(汇)(率)(中)(间)(价)(的)(中)(间)(水)(平)(。因)(此)(,仅)(从)(技)(术)(上)(看)(,人)(民)(币)(对)(美)(元)(汇)(率)(在)(一)(个)(稳)(定)(的)(区)(间)(内)(波)(动)(,还)(远)(没)(到)(担)(忧)(贬)(值)(升)(值)(的)(趋)(势)(的)(地)(步)(,外)(汇)(市)(场)(供)(求)(也)(处)(于)(相)(对)(平)(衡)(状)(态)(。
也)(有)(人)(担)(忧)(全)(球)(流)(动)(性)(缩)(紧)(会)(对)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(带)(来)(压)(力)(。从)(目)(前)(来)(看)(,从)(2017年)(至)(今)(,全)(球)(流)(动)(性)(是)(处)(在)(一)(个)(持)(续)(缩)(紧)(的)(大)(趋)(势)(之)(中)(,包)(括)(美)(联)(储)(数)(次)(加)(息)(、欧)(洲)(央)(行)(明)(确)(退)(出)(QE路)(径)(、中)(国)(金)(融)(去)(杠)(杆)(等)(,但)(在)(这)(个)(流)(动)(性)(缩)(紧)(的)(周)(期)(内)(,是)(全)(球)(汇)(率)(市)(场)(均)(身)(处)(其)(中)(,因)(此)(,全)(球)(相)(对)(均)(衡)(的)(汇)(率)(体)(系)(并)(没)(有)(打)(乱)(。中)(国)(近)(一)(年)(来)(的)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(依)(然)(保)(持)(相)(对)(稳)(定)(的)(趋)(势)(没)(变)(。即)(便)(当)(前)(出)(现)(了)(贸)(易)(摩)(擦)(的)(“黑)(天)(鹅)(”,也)(并)(没)(有)(出)(现)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(单)(向)(趋)(势)(,依)(然)(保)(持)(着)(稳)(健)(的)(波)(动)(运)(行)(机)(制)(。
更)(为)(重)(要)(的)(是)(,中)(国)(经)(济)(的)(增)(长)(依)(然)(保)(持)(相)(对)(稳)(健)(的)(趋)(势)(,这)(奠)(定)(了)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(保)(持)(稳)(定)(的)(基)(石)(。国)(家)(统)(计)(局)(日)(前)(发)(布)(的)(上)(半)(年)(经)(济)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,上)(半)(年)(国)(内)(生)(产)(总)(值)(418961亿)(元)(,按)(可)(比)(价)(格)(计)(算)(,同)(比)(增)(长)(6.8%。用)(国)(家)(统)(计)(局)(新)(闻)(发)(言)(人)(的)(话)(说)(,国)(民)(经)(济)(延)(续)(总)(体)(平)(稳)(、稳)(中)(向)(好)(的)(发)(展)(态)(势)(,结)(构)(调)(整)(深)(入)(推)(进)(,新)(旧)(动)(能)(接)(续)(转)(换)(,质)(量)(效)(益)(稳)(步)(提)(升)(,经)(济)(迈)(向)(高)(质)(量)(发)(展)(起)(步)(良)(好)(。
贸)(易)(进)(出)(口)(方)(面)(,上)(半)(年)(我)(国)(货)(物)(进)(出)(口)(顺)(差)(收)(窄)(,贸)(易)(结)(构)(继)(续)(改)(善)(。对)(前)(三)(大)(贸)(易)(伙)(伴)(进)(出)(口)(保)(持)(增)(长)(,对)(欧)(盟)(、美)(国)(和)(东)(盟)(进)(出)(口)(分)(别)(增)(长)(5.3%、5.2%和)(11%,三)(者)(合)(计)(占)(我)(国)(进)(出)(口)(总)(额)(的)(41%。因)(此)(,即)(便)(当)(前)(及)(下)(半)(年)(会)(受)(到)(中)(美)(贸)(易)(摩)(擦)(的)(影)(响)(,但)(影)(响)(也)(有)(限)(,并)(不)(会)(改)(变)(我)(国)(的)(贸)(易)(进)(出)(口)(总)(体)(格)(局)(。因)(此)(,在)(这)(方)(面)(,对)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(的)(影)(响)(也)(是)(阶)(段)(性)(的)(。而)(从)(近)(期)(人)(民)(币)(对)(欧)(元)(、英)(镑)(、日)(元)(、澳)(大)(利)(亚)(元)(等)(汇)(率)(的)(稳)(定)(表)(现)(来)(看)(,贸)(易)(摩)(擦)(对)(汇)(率)(的)(影)(响)(暂)(时)(还)(没)(有)(显)(现)(出)(来)(。各)(主)(要)(贸)(易)(币)(值)(均)(保)(持)(相)(对)(稳)(定)(。
国)(内)(消)(费)(同)(样)(给)(了)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(保)(持)(稳)(定)(的)(信)(心)(。数)(据)(显)(示)(,上)(半)(年)(,全)(国)(居)(民)(人)(均)(消)(费)(支)(出)(9609元)(,同)(比)(名)(义)(增)(长)(8.8%,比)(一)(季)(度)(加)(快)(1.2个)(百)(分)(点)(,扣)(除)(价)(格)(因)(素)(实)(际)(增)(长)(6.7%,加)(快)(1.3个)(百)(分)(点)(。上)(半)(年)(,社)(会)(消)(费)(品)(零)(售)(总)(额)(180018亿)(元)(,同)(比)(增)(长)(9.4%。
此)(外)(,还)(应)(看)(到)(,随)(着)(近)(几)(年)(人)(民)(币)(国)(际)(化)(进)(程)(的)(推)(进)(,人)(民)(币)(越)(来)(越)(多)(地)(在)(贸)(易)(结)(算)(中)(使)(用)(,越)(来)(越)(多)(的)(国)(家)(与)(中)(国)(签)(订)(了)(本)(币)(互)(换)(协)(议)(,人)(民)(币)(也)(越)(来)(越)(多)(地)(成)(为)(其)(他)(国)(家)(外)(汇)(储)(备)(的)(币)(种)(选)(择)(。从)(这)(个)(角)(度)(而)(言)(,人)(民)(币)(早)(已)(不)(是)(当)(初)(的)(一)(家)(之)(币)(、一)(域)(之)(币)(,中)(国)(正)(用)(自)(己)(的)(实)(际)(努)(力)(与)(发)(展)(,让)(人)(民)(币)(日)(渐)(成)(为)(全)(球)(接)(受)(的)(国)(际)(货)(币)(之)(一)(。
因)(此)(,人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(有)(责)(任)(、有)(必)(要)(保)(持)(相)(对)(稳)(定)(,这)(不)(仅)(对)(中)(国)(有)(利)(,也)(对)(全)(球)(经)(济)(的)(稳)(定)(增)(长)(有)(利)(。返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(责)(任)(编)(辑)(:
声)(明)(:该)(文)(观)(点)(仅)(代)(表)(作)(者)(本)(人)(,搜)(狐)(号)(系)(信)(息)(发)(布)(平)(台)(,搜)(狐)(仅)(提)(供)(信)(息)(存)(储)(空)(间)(服)(务)(。
阅)(读)(()
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